Kevin Pelton’s NBA mailbag is ~~throws~~ back, featuring ~~walk~~ your ~~hit~~ questions ~~from~~ on ~~through~~ an experiment ~~nba~~ using ~~3-point~~ a ~~follow~~ single ~~of~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~really~~ attempt ~~are~~ for ~~the~~ all ~~basketball~~ points, Russell Westbrook’s shooting ~~walk~~ numbers, the ~~the~~ best ~~scoring~~ way to ~~and~~ enforce ~~and~~ 3-point ~~be~~ shooting ~~on~~ fouls ~~about~~ and ~~a~~ how scoring ~~and~~ relates ~~n***d~~ to ~~than~~ win ~~a~~ projections.

You can ~~the~~ tweet ~~to~~ your ~~hit~~ questions ~~are~~ using ~~following~~ the ~~scoring~~ hashtag #peltonmailbag ~~shoot~~ or ~~larger~~ email them ~~his~~ to [email protected]

We’d expect ~~i~~ fewer points ~~of~~ per FTA then, right, since ~~only~~ players ~~for~~ are ~~manzell~~ more ~~easiest~~ likely ~~about~~ to ~~many~~ miss ~~the~~ their first? Or do ~~seasons~~ you ~~by~~ expect the added ~~life~~ value ~~point~~ of ~~from~~ the ~~2016-17~~ shot ~~than~~ will ~~still~~ generate 2nd-shot like ~~was~~ focus?

— Manzell dot Beezy (@ManzellBeezy) September 26, 2019

This question ~~what~~ stems ~~a~~ from ~~you~~ the discussion ~~through~~ about ~~so~~ the NBA experimenting ~~it~~ with ~~odds~~ a ~~follow~~ single ~~of~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~balance~~ for ~~the~~ all ~~basketball~~ points this season in ~~to~~ the G League, as ~~are~~ first ~~on~~ reported ~~points~~ last ~~it~~ month ~~worth~~ by ~~i~~ my ~~sample~~ colleague Zach Lowe. It’s well ~~a~~ established ~~we've~~ that ~~featuring~~ this ~~then~~ change ~~at~~ would ~~second~~ diminish ~~fouled~~ scoring ~~shooting~~ because ~~game~~ players ~~for~~ are historically more ~~easiest~~ likely ~~about~~ to ~~free~~ make ~~to~~ the ~~than~~ second ~~attempt~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~so~~ of ~~once~~ a ~~the~~ trip ~~first~~ to ~~to~~ the ~~of~~ line ~~shots~~ than ~~in~~ the ~~per~~ first ~~featuring~~ one, but I wanted ~~three-shot~~ to dig ~~players~~ deeper ~~this~~ on how ~~opposite~~ much ~~to~~ that might ~~in~~ matter.

With the ~~here~~ help ~~to~~ of ESPN Stats & Information research, I went ~~the~~ through ~~hashtag~~ every free ~~the~~ throw ~~the~~ shot ~~it~~ in ~~to~~ the ~~free~~ league ~~ask~~ during ~~of~~ the ~~throw~~ 2018-19 ~~that~~ regular ~~following~~ season. As expected, players ~~accurate~~ did ~~improve~~ shoot ~~of~~ better ~~factor~~ on ~~kevin~~ the ~~than~~ second ~~the~~ attempt (78.9%) than ~~in~~ the ~~per~~ first (73.6%). To explore ~~westbrook~~ further, I treated players’ shooting on ~~kevin~~ the ~~per~~ first ~~a~~ of ~~to~~ two ~~making~~ attempts as their “base” free ~~the~~ throw ~~during~~ percentage ~~ago~~ and ~~of~~ then ~~the~~ used this to ~~once~~ get ~~a~~ what we’d expect ~~peltonmailbaggmailcom~~ them ~~his~~ to shoot ~~much~~ on ~~through~~ a variety ~~attempts~~ of ~~now~~ different ~~point~~ attempts. (This adjustment ~~fouls~~ is ~~september~~ necessary ~~8212~~ because ~~still~~ three-shot ~~or~~ fouls ~~about~~ and ~~throws~~ technical ~~and~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~schoene~~ typically ~~technicals~~ go ~~the~~ to ~~of~~ better ~~the~~ shooters.) That yields ~~hit~~ the ~~decades~~ following ~~only~~ results for ~~pelton's~~ types ~~fair~~ of free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~game~~ attempted ~~total~~ at ~~it~~ least ~~then~~ 100 ~~the~~ times ~~the~~ last ~~point~~ season.

Actual vs. expected FT%ShotofFTAxFT%FT%Ratio116006.737.7451.0111223112.736.7361.0002223097.736.7891.07313935.797.8001.00423935.797.8761.09933935.797.8711.0921Tech1338.811.8121.000

(To answer ~~through~~ one ~~of~~ question ~~making~~ before ~~the~~ you ~~russell~~ ask ~~game~~ it: There are slightly ~~time~~ fewer ~~fouled~~ second ~~attempt~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~dot~~ than ~~a**lysis~~ first ~~featuring~~ ones ~~will~~ because ~~fouled~~ of ~~all~~ lane ~~hashtag~~ violations ~~group~~ that wipe out ~~throw~~ the ~~than~~ second ~~the~~ attempt.)

Looking over ~~foul~~ all ~~average~~ these ~~so~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws, the ~~than~~ value ~~point~~ of ~~what~~ repet*tion is ~~more~~ clear. I recall ~~two~~ theorizing that ~~225~~ players ~~project~~ shot ~~shooting~~ worse ~~3-point~~ on ~~worth~~ technical ~~and~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~dot~~ than ~~worth~~ overall ~~diminish~~ because ~~a~~ the ~~history~~ circ*mstances were ~~higher~~ different ~~the~~ without ~~the~~ any ~~dot~~ other ~~scored~~ players ~~predictor~~ on ~~kevin~~ the ~~of~~ line, but ~~is~~ it ~~equivalent~~ turns ~~for~~ out ~~two~~ this isn’t the ~~a~~ case ~~point~~ at ~~free~~ all. They shoot ~~espn~~ worse ~~on~~ simply ~~hit~~ because technicals ~~game~~ are ~~the~~ typically ~~regression~~ the ~~per~~ first ~~is~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~foul~~ taken. (I separated ~~on~~ out cases ~~worse~~ where ~~on~~ the ~~diminish~~ same ~~game~~ player ~~the~~ shot ~~from~~ multiple ~~worse~~ consecutive ~~rooks~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws, a ~~free~~ tiny sample but ~~players~~ one ~~spectrum~~ on ~~and~~ which ~~to~~ they ~~one~~ did ~~improve~~ shoot ~~of~~ better ~~factor~~ on ~~kevin~~ the ~~than~~ second ~~the~~ attempt.) It’s also intriguing that ~~225~~ players ~~unprecedented~~ actually shot ~~shooting~~ worse ~~differential~~ last ~~point~~ season ~~is~~ on ~~kevin~~ the ~~have~~ third ~~the~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~game~~ on ~~through~~ a ~~to~~ 3-point ~~in~~ foul ~~it's~~ than ~~in~~ the ~~than~~ second, which ~~larger~~ certainly might ~~higher~~ be ~~the~~ noise ~~dot~~ in ~~to~~ the ~~on~~ data.

If players ~~then~~ shoot ~~westbrook's~~ the ~~of~~ way they ~~regression~~ do ~~theorizing~~ on ~~kevin~~ the ~~per~~ first ~~a~~ of ~~to~~ two ~~making~~ attempts, we’d expect shooting ~~year~~ a ~~follow~~ single ~~of~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~balance~~ for ~~the~~ all ~~basketball~~ points to ~~useful~~ reduce ~~for~~ the ~~than~~ value ~~point~~ of ~~once~~ a ~~be~~ two-shot ~~of~~ foul ~~is~~ from 1.52 points ~~of~~ per ~~this~~ play ~~first~~ to 1.47 and ~~least~~ a three-shot ~~tiny~~ foul ~~is~~ from 2.55 points ~~of~~ per ~~this~~ play ~~first~~ to 2.4 points ~~of~~ per ~~this~~ play. Overall, this ~~than~~ would ~~is~~ reduce ~~8212~~ scoring efficiency ~~could~~ by ~~but~~ about 0.5 points ~~of~~ per ~~out~~ 100 ~~zach~~ possessions once we ~~27~~ factor in ~~for~~ additional ~~shooting~~ offensive ~~moneyball16~~ rebounds — probably ~~line~~ not ~~defenses~~ a ~~431~~ noticeable ~~hit~~ difference to ~~to~~ the ~~the~~ n***d ~~wins~~ eye, but ~~go~~ a ~~kevin~~ real ~~in~~ one ~~a~~ nonetheless.

“I had a ~~differential~~ realization ~~through~~ after listening ~~shoot~~ to ~~per~~ a story ~~nba~~ about James Harden and ~~a~~ how ~~your~~ getting ~~free~~ fouled ~~free~~ on ~~through~~ a ~~to~~ 3-pointer ~~act~~ is now ~~i~~ the most ~~it~~ valuable shot ~~it~~ in basketball. Right now ~~i~~ the ~~seasons~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~the~~ average ~~but~~ is ~~actual~~ about ~~nba~~ 75% for ~~foul~~ the NBA so ~~taking~~ a ~~following~~ foul ~~a~~ on ~~through~~ a ~~extra~~ 2-point shot ~~the~~ is worth ~1.5 points, but ~2.25 for ~~the~~ a ~~to~~ 3-pointer! This difference ~~scoring~~ incentivizes one ~~aba-nba~~ of everyone’s biggest ~~the~~ complaints ~~out~~ about ~~so~~ the NBA — flailing ~~are~~ appendages ~~from~~ on ~~far~~ 3-point attempts. It seems to me ~~from~~ that ~~average~~ giving ~~to~~ only ~~the~~ two ~~change~~ foul ~~httpwwwespncomnbastory_id27928404what-one-free-throw-rule-mean-nba~~ shots ~~experimenting~~ on ~~through~~ a ~~to~~ 3-pointer ~~act~~ is fair ~~better~~ and ~~17~~ would ~~is~~ reduce ~~for~~ the ~~experimenting~~ incentive to ~~extreme~~ draw ~~locke~~ fouls.” – Michael Lutter

Follow Zion, Ja, RJ, De’Andre, Coby and ~~the~~ more ~~attempts~~ top ~~close~~ rooks ~~the~~ as ~~2016-17~~ they ~~line~~ balance ~~first~~ basketball ~~wanted~~ and ~~kevin~~ life ~~from~~ during ~~the~~ an ~~worth~~ exciting NBA season. Watch on ESPN+

Taking up ~~out~~ a similar ~~it's~~ topic, my ~~in~~ a**lysis ~~points~~ of ~~from~~ the ~~per~~ first question ~~line~~ shows ~~ this ~~~~shot~~ back-of-the-envelope ~~as~~ calculation ~~the~~ undervalues a three-shot ~~tiny~~ foul ~~relates~~ in practice ~~watch~~ because ~~game~~ players ~~free~~ fouled in ~~to~~ the ~~pythagorean~~ act ~~play~~ of ~~points~~ shooting ~~dig~~ 3s ~~level~~ are ~~the~~ naturally ~~shoot~~ better ~~will~~ 3-point ~~shooters~~ shooters. The actual 2.55 points ~~of~~ per ~~this~~ play ~~based~~ on ~~attempt~~ three-shot ~~or~~ fouls ~~about~~ ~~that~~ is ~~and~~ equivalent ~~again~~ to ~~mark~~ shooting 85% on ~~through~~ a ~~to~~ 3-point attempt and ~~least~~ an ~~hit~~ impossible ~~has~~ 127% on ~~through~~ a ~~extra~~ 2-point attempt.

The tricky ~~shots~~ line ~~that~~ to walk on ~~an~~ shooting ~~on~~ fouls ~~about~~ ~~that~~ is ~~the~~ we ~~answer~~ want ~~everyone's~~ them ~~his~~ to ~~of~~ be ~~that's~~ at ~~it~~ least ~~going~~ valuable ~~per~~ enough ~~a~~ to ~~i~~ keep ~~to~~ defenses ~~is~~ from ~~to~~ exploiting ~~for~~ them ~~is~~ by ~~but~~ fouling ~~the~~ intentionally ~~worse~~ without ~~attempt~~ making ~~to~~ them ~~the~~ so ~~is~~ valuable ~~added~~ that ~~points~~ offenses ~~shooting~~ desperately seek them. We’ve probably hit the ~~attempted~~ latter ~~moneyball16~~ extreme ~~worse~~ with ~~one~~ three-shot ~~or~~ fouls. Could we ~~are~~ return ~~total~~ to ~~but~~ two ~~but~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~worth~~ for ~~the~~ a ~~projections~~ shooting ~~on~~ foul ~~uncontested~~ beyond the ~~about~~ arc — the ~~on~~ rule from ~~you~~ the ~~because~~ introduction ~~basketball~~ of ~~from~~ the ~~that~~ 3-point ~~and~~ line ~~that~~ through 1993-94 — without ~~a~~ going ~~right~~ too ~~that~~ far ~~extremes~~ in ~~to~~ the opposite ~~pelton's~~ direction?

I think ~~an~~ the ~~throws~~ answer ~~one~~ is ~~the~~ yes. A shooting ~~on~~ foul ~~a~~ on ~~through~~ a 3 ~~consecutive~~ would ~~to~~ still ~~larger~~ be ~~average~~ worth ~~walk~~ about 1.7 points on ~~the~~ average, equivalent ~~again~~ to ~~uncontested~~ making ~~736~~ 56% of 3-pointers. According to Second Spectrum tracking, that’s still ~~incentive~~ way better ~~of~~ than what ~~opposite~~ the ~~will~~ average ~~play~~ player ~~the~~ shot ~~impossible~~ last ~~point~~ season ~~is~~ on ~~kevin~~ the easiest ~~at~~ possible ~~second~~ 3-pointers — uncontested ~~3-point~~ catch-and-shoot ~~the~~ attempts from ~~you~~ the corner, hit 43.1% of ~~from~~ the ~~i~~ time. As long ~~necessary~~ as ~~through~~ we ~~lane~~ went ~~pelton's~~ back ~~went~~ to ~~up~~ three ~~slightly~~ shots ~~experimenting~~ on ~~through~~ a ~~to~~ 3-point ~~be~~ shooting ~~on~~ foul ~~relates~~ in ~~to~~ the ~~i~~ final ~~reported~~ two ~~3~~ minutes to ~~following~~ prevent ~~are~~ teams ~~as~~ from ~~the~~ fouling ~~the~~ intentionally ~~on~~ when ~~for~~ up ~~it~~ by ~~127~~ three, I’d endorse ~~do~~ this ~~n***d~~ rule change.

#peltonmailbag What do ~~seasons~~ you ~~throws~~ project Westbrook to shoot ~~two~~ from ~~you~~ the ~~of~~ line ~~to~~ this ~~so~~ year? Going from .845 ~~one~~ to .656 ~~shoot~~ in ~~to~~ 2 ~~on~~ seasons ~~appendages~~ seems ~~of~~ unprecedented.

— Moneyball16 (@Moneyball16) August 29, 2019

Staying on ~~kevin~~ the ~~seasons~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~but~~ theme … the ~~saw~~ short ~~do~~ answer ~~per~~ here ~~2019~~ is ~~jazz's~~ my SCHOENE projection ~~that~~ system ~~them~~ forecast 73.5% shooting ~~out~~ from Westbrook, about ~~fouled~~ what ~~average~~ he ~~2016-17~~ shot ~~merger~~ two ~~shooting~~ seasons ago (73.7%) and ~~least~~ also ~~a~~ close ~~also~~ to ~~to~~ the ~~will~~ average ~~first~~ of ~~which~~ his ~~are~~ previous ~~first~~ three ~~that~~ seasons (74.6%).

Now the long ~~hollinger~~ answer. Westbrook’s decline isn’t really unprecedented. Among players ~~prorating~~ who ~~moneyball16~~ have ~~extreme~~ shot ~~tiny~~ at ~~it~~ least ~~then~~ 100 ~~your~~ free ~~the~~ throw ~~2019~~ attempts ~~for~~ two ~~shooting~~ seasons ~~points~~ apart ~~game~~ since ~~shooting~~ the ABA-NBA merger, the 18.9% difference ~~shot~~ between ~~opposite~~ his ~~two~~ 2016-17 ~~deeper~~ and ~~espn~~ 2018-19 accuracy ~~nonetheless~~ ranks ~~once~~ just ~~circ*mstances~~ 15th ~~8212~~ largest. What is ~~according~~ unusual ~~ja~~ is Westbrook doing ~~three-shot~~ so ~~fta~~ while ~~is~~ attempting ~~nba~~ so ~~one~~ many ~~of~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws. If we increase ~~wins~~ the ~~on~~ sample to ~~three~~ at ~~it~~ least ~~to~~ 400 ~~the~~ attempts both ~~a~~ seasons, only Tim Duncan from ~~terms~~ 2001-02 ~~now~~ through ~~shot~~ 2003-04 (79.9% to 59.9%) has ~~them~~ fallen ~~line~~ off ~~however~~ more ~~hit~~ since ~~shooting~~ the ~~game~~ merger.

History suggests ~~foul~~ some ~~shot~~ level ~~since~~ of ~~them~~ regression ~~is~~ to ~~to~~ the ~~2016-17~~ mean ~~free~~ is likely. Returning to ~~to~~ the ~~the~~ larger ~~ago~~ sample ~~free~~ of ~~seasons~~ players ~~prorating~~ who ~~year~~ shot ~~tiny~~ at ~~it~~ least ~~then~~ 100 ~~your~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~on~~ in Year 1, Year 3 ~~it~~ and Year 4, that ~~at~~ group ~~what~~ saw ~~free~~ their free ~~the~~ throw ~~efficiency~~ percentages ~~once~~ improve ~~without~~ by an ~~projection~~ average ~~first~~ of 9.5%. Add that ~~opposite~~ to ~~will~~ what Westbrook shot ~~impossible~~ last ~~point~~ season ~~through~~ and ~~point~~ you ~~shooters~~ get 75.1%, again ~~once~~ in ~~to~~ the ~~diminish~~ same ~~focus~~ ballpark ~~to~~ as SCHOENE’s projection. Odds are Westbrook will ~~the~~ be a ~~further~~ worse ~~nba~~ foul ~~impossible~~ shooter than ~~throws~~ he ~~will~~ was ~~differential~~ through ~~accuracy~~ 2016-17 (when ~~addition~~ he ~~the~~ hit at ~~it~~ least ~~them~~ 80% of ~~which~~ his ~~first~~ free ~~experimenting~~ throws ~~on~~ in ~~it's~~ all ~~projections~~ but ~~players~~ one ~~aba-nba~~ of ~~which~~ his NBA campaigns) but ~~go~~ a substantially better ~~beyond~~ one ~~17~~ than ~~be~~ last ~~point~~ season.

“Is one ~~espn~~ point ~~as~~ per ~~ game ~~~~at~~ still thought ~~but~~ of ~~once~~ as worth 2.7 wins?” – David Locke

The Utah Jazz’s radio broadcaster is ~~system~~ referring ~~technical~~ to ~~per~~ a rule ~~in~~ of ~~act~~ thumb ~~and~~ that I believe John Hollinger of ~~from~~ the Athletic popularized ~~and~~ that ~~player~~ each ~~of~~ extra ~~play~~ point ~~as~~ per ~~ game ~~~~wins~~ in ~~a~~ differential will ~~a~~ typically translate to 2.7 wins ~~points~~ over ~~foul~~ a ~~point~~ full season. This formula gets used less ~~they~~ frequently ~~3-point~~ than Pythagorean wins, which is a ~~season~~ more ~~that~~ accurate ~~jazz's~~ predictor ~~in~~ of ~~but~~ win ~~game~~ percentage ~~as~~ at ~~opposite~~ the ~~but~~ extremes ~~consecutive~~ because ~~have~~ it ~~schoene~~ takes ~~do~~ into ~~ account ~~~~more~~ the total ~~theorizing~~ points ~~a~~ scored ~~decline~~ per ~~ game ~~~~wins~~ in addition ~~of~~ to ~~last~~ differential. The difference ~~scoring~~ in predictive ~~what~~ accuracy is ~~to~~ marginal, however, and ~~player~~ having ~~first~~ a ~~experimenting~~ value ~~point~~ of ~~went~~ one ~~espn~~ point ~~as~~ per ~~ game ~~~~wins~~ in terms ~~the~~ of ~~point~~ wins ~~and~~ is ~~attempt~~ useful ~~regression~~ conceptually.

As it ~~equivalent~~ turns ~~for~~ out, 2.7 wins ~~given~~ might ~~per~~ overstate ~~terms~~ the ~~than~~ value ~~point~~ of ~~went~~ one ~~espn~~ point ~~as~~ per ~~ game ~~~~season~~ of ~~now~~ differential ~~about~~ now that ~~time~~ games ~~to~~ are ~~about~~ higher scoring. Looking year by year ~~i~~ at ~~opposite~~ the ~~value~~ relationship ~~wins~~ between ~~up~~ differential ~~odds~~ and ~~points~~ record, one ~~espn~~ point ~~as~~ per ~~ game ~~~~up~~ has ~~useful~~ indeed ~~substantially~~ been ~~differential~~ worth 2.7 wins ~~his~~ on ~~the~~ average ~~shots~~ over ~~to~~ the ~~during~~ past ~~corner~~ two and ~~least~~ a ~~tiny~~ half decades (prorating ~~to~~ the ~~will~~ two ~~expect~~ lockout-shortened ~~first~~ seasons to ~~total~~ 82 ~~separated~~ games). But the ~~act~~ last time ~~hashtag~~ it ~~accurate~~ reached ~~of~~ this mark ~~736~~ was ~~history~~ 2014-15, and last ~~point~~ season’s 2.4 wins ~~dig~~ per ~~wanted~~ additional ~~better~~ point ~~two~~ was ~~a~~ the ~~throw~~ lowest ~~in~~ mark ~~but~~ in ~~points~~ that ~~points~~ span.

Rationally, the ~~russell~~ more ~~the~~ total ~~theorizing~~ points ~~a~~ scored, the ~~one~~ less ~~games~~ important ~~they~~ one ~~56~~ additional ~~better~~ point ~~line~~ will ~~the~~ be, and there’s a ~~free~~ linear — albeit ~~the~~ imperfect — relationship ~~wins~~ between ~~then~~ leaguewide ~~in~~ points ~~of~~ per ~~ game ~~~~the~~ and the ~~than~~ value ~~point~~ of ~~once~~ a ~~play~~ point. Based on that, you’d expect ~~the~~ an additional ~~better~~ point ~~as~~ per ~~ game ~~~~terms~~ to ~~of~~ be ~~average~~ worth ~~walk~~ about 2.5 wins ~~shot~~ given last ~~point~~ season’s scoring ~~to~~ average. So I’d go ~~worse~~ with ~~opposite~~ that ~~after~~ as ~~are~~ a ~~experimenting~~ value ~~long~~ for ~~on~~ now.

Source: http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27928404/what-one-free-throw-rule-mean-nba